Based on the National Weather Service’ Climate Prediction Center, here is a summary of the main factors which usually influence seasonal climates: - El Nino and La Nina
- Trends – Approximated by the Optimal Climate Normals (OCN) Tool – difference between the most recent 10-year mean temperature or 15-year mean of precipitation and the 30-year climatology Period (currently 1971-2000)
- The Tropical 30-60 DAY oscillation – otherwise called the Madden Julian
- The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) And the Pacific North American (PNA) patterns
- The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)
- Persistently dry or wet soil in the summer and snow ice cover anomalies acting as a kind of memory system
- Statistical forecast tools
- Dynamical forecast models
- Consolidation (CON) - Makes optimum use of the known skills in our forecast tools
- Below average temps over much of Alaska, Washington and coastal regions of Oregon and California
- The 3-month precipitation outlook calls for above average median precipitation almost through the Mississippi Valley
- In locations where the likelihoods of seasonal mean temps and rainfall are similar to probabilities, equal chances of low, mean, or high averages are likely
For graphical displays of forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Weather Service’ Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
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